Evaluating England’s Plastic Bag Reduction Strategies,
2015 – 2025

Abstract: This study evaluates the effectiveness of England’s single-use plastic bag charge from 2015 to 2025, focusing on the 2015 five-pence levy (initially for large retailers) and the 2021 increase to ten pence (extended to all retailers). Using official DEFRA statistics, I pair descriptive trend analysis with an interrupted time-series model across four outcomes: total bags, bags per capita, charge revenue, and donations to good causes. Bag use fell sharply after the 2015 charge (≈73–75% versus 2014) and declined further after the 2021 update (≈18%), stabilizing at historically low levels (about 7 bags per person and ~400 million

annually by 2021–22). Revenues and donations peaked soon after the initial levy (≈£165m and ≈£120m in 2016–17) before falling in line with reduced volumes; cumulative donations remained substantial. Hypothesis tests confirm a large immediate reduction in 2015 and

sustained low usage through 2025, but not the predicted additional 25% decline following the 2021 increase. Overall, modest, salient per-bag fees function as Pigouvian taxes that durably shift consumer behavior with limited administrative burden, offering a scalable template for other single-use plastics.