From Dependency to Destiny: Crafting Europe’s Resilient and Green Rare Earth Revolution

Abstract: The European supply chain for Rare Earth Elements (REE) faces increasing vulnerability due to China's persistent dominance over global REE exports. Almost half (46%) of Europe’s REE are sourced from China, whose government seeks to transform this crucial raw material into a geopolitical weapon. This article contends that given the improbability of China loosening its export control, and the lack of viable substitutions, Europe must urgently develop a solution that prioritises resilience and sustainability. The proposed framework is evaluated through quantitative modelling of costs, environmental impacts, and overall feasibility. A novel metric—“safety stock building time”—is introduced to assess the supply chain’s resilience under various disruption scenarios projected to 2045, with graphical illustrations of system performance. Sensitivity analysis highlights the relative influence of different supply sources, revealing that while import purchases have a significant effect on resilience in the short run, expanding domestic production is essential for long-term supply security. Through analysing the implementation timeframe, this article investigates methods to minimize the permission time for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which enhances the efficiency of the model. Lastly, the limitations of this proposed solution are discussed, which highlights the gaps in current literature, including the lack of dynamic analysis, and the various geopolitical risks that may disrupt the supply chain.